2023 NFL Draft order: Texans’ grip on No. 1 overall pick loosens after Week 16 win, Bears’ loss

Biggest needs: QB, OL, DL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Jaguars

EE: The Texans are suddenly only half a game up in the race for the No. 1 overall pick, which at least raises the possibility that they don’t take a quarterback with their first selection in Round 1. If that scenario unfolds, we wouldn’t be shocked at all if they used a high pick on a defensive enforcer to help bolster a line that has been threaded together with various pieces.

Biggest needs: Edge, DL, OL

Week 17 opponent: at Lions

DP: On the heels of the Texans improving to 2-12-1 on Saturday, the first overall pick is in play for the 3-12 Bears with two games to go. Chicago last led off a draft in 1947, when George Halas’ team selected Oklahoma State halfback Bob Fenimore, who retired after one NFL season.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos’ record: 4-11 (.462)

Broncos’ Week 17 opponent: at Chiefs

Seahawks’ biggest needs: Edge, QB, DT

DP: Perhaps free-agent-to-be Geno Smith rediscovers the magic with winnable home games against the Jets and Rams remaining on the schedule, but he and the Seahawks are fading heading into the final two weeks. He’s now thrown five INTs in the last five games (four of them losses) after tossing just four in his first 10 starts.

NOTE: See the playoff teams section of this article for analysis of the Broncos’ needs.

Biggest needs: OL, CB, Edge

Week 17 opponent: at Falcons

DP: As the Cardinals continue to rise in the draft order, trading down might start to look like an appealing option if, say, QB-needy teams come calling. Arizona could use as much draft capital as it can get and is down a couple picks next year due to trades for Cody Ford and Trayvon Mullen.  

Biggest needs: QB, OT, Edge

Week 17 opponent: at Giants

EE: One way or another, the Colts must add a quarterback this offseason. The benching of Matt Ryan for the second time this season — and the promotion of Sam Ehlinger to the QB2 spot – could suggest that the team will take the $18 million dead-cap hit on Ryan in 2023. The cheapest and easiest way to mitigate that is to add a rookie QB salary to the books.

Biggest needs: QB, Edge, WR

Week 17 opponent: vs. Cardinals

DP: Quarterback returns to the needs list this week. With the Falcons moving up in the draft order and Desmond Ridder unable to spark the offense so far, drafting a quarterback in Round 1 should be on the table for Atlanta.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE LOS ANGELES RAMS

Rams’ record: 5-10 (.502)

Rams’ Week 17 opponent: at Chargers

Lions’ biggest needs: DB, DL, QB

DP: The Panthers ran over the Lions on Saturday and offered the world a reminder that Detroit’s defense, despite its improvement in the second half of the season, still has vulnerabilities. Carolina racked up a franchise-record 320 rushing yards in the 37-23 rout, with 60 percent of its carries going inside the tackles.

NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Rams’ needs.

Biggest needs: OL, Edge, DB

Week 17 opponent: vs. 49ers

EE: We should know whether to add quarterback to this list fairly quickly this offseason. Derek Carr’s salary will become fully guaranteed just a few days after the Super Bowl, and the Raiders could scramble to put a trade together if Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler are not convinced he’s the QB to lead them to the promised land. That obviously would shake up the Raiders’ entire offseason forecast. 

Biggest needs: QB, CB, TE

Week 17 opponent: at Buccaneers

DP: The Panthers, who have a screaming need for a franchise quarterback, were holding a top-five pick a month ago. Now they’re a couple wins away from picking outside the top 18 as the NFC South champions. The next two weeks figure to have a massive impact on the direction of the team.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints’ record: 6-9 (.484)

Saints’ Week 17 opponent: at Eagles

Eagles’ biggest needs: DB, Edge, DL

DP: The Eagles have the unique opportunity to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC and help their draft positioning with a win in Week 17 since they hold the Saints’ first-rounder. The last thing Philadelphia wants is to lose a second straight game and help New Orleans get a step closer to winning the NFC South. A division title for the Saints would move that pick outside of the top 18.

NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Saints’ needs.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE CLEVELAND BROWNS

Browns’ record: 6-9 (.527)

Browns’ Week 17 opponent: at Commanders

See Pick No. 1 for analysis of the Texans’ needs and the bottom of this article for analysis of the Browns’ needs.

Week 17 opponent: vs. Jets

NOTE: See Pick No. 3 for analysis of the Seahawks’ needs.

Biggest needs: OL, WR, TE

Week 17 opponent: vs. Cowboys

EE: Trading A.J. Brown changed the course of the Titans’ 2022 season dramatically, and it’s clear that they need more big-play options in the passing game. But there suddenly are a million unknowns heading into this offseason, with GM Jon Robinson gone, the Titans losing five straight and the future at quarterback in question. Is this fully Mike Vrabel’s roster now? Add that to the list of huge questions lingering in Nashville. 

Biggest needs: OT, WR, DB

Week 17 opponent: vs. Dolphins

EE: We could see an offensive tackle or cornerback rising to the top of the draft shopping list in 2023. Isaiah Wynn will be a free agent, and Trent Brown isn’t a shoo-in to return. Young CBs Marcus Jones and Jack Jones have opened eyes, but the Patriots need more at the position.

Biggest needs: S, TE, Edge

Week 17 opponent: vs. Vikings

DP: For now, edge rusher replaces offensive line on the needs list following the news of Elgton Jenkins’ contract extension. The Packers should be strengthening their depth at the position with Rashan Gary coming off an ACL tear in the final year of his rookie deal next season.

Biggest needs: OL, CB, DL

Week 17 opponent: at Ravens

EE: The Steelers have slipped outside the top 15 in the draft order after winning four out of their last five games, which could dramatically affect whom they target in Round 1 next spring. There still could be solid options at offensive tackle available, but Pittsburgh might be out of range of the top prospects at defensive tackle and cornerback if the pick keeps dropping.

Biggest needs: OL, S, QB

Week 17 opponent: at Seahawks

EE: The quarterback situation has officially reached panic levels. There’s a chance Zach Wilson doesn’t take another meaningful snap for the Jets. Assuming Mike White is back (he’s due to become a free agent), and possibly Chris Streveler, it’s clear that more help is needed. But after the Wilson pick, would the Jets still be willing to draft a QB? Or would they go the veteran route and keep attacking roster depth at other spots in the draft?

Week 17 opponent: vs. Bears

NOTE: See Pick No. 7 for analysis of the Lions’ needs.

Biggest needs: DL, OT, CB

Week 17 opponent: at Texans

EE: With Cam Robinson on injured reserve, Walker Little has stepped in and shown some promise. The two of them could be the starting offensive tackles in 2023, with Jawaan Taylor due to hit free agency. If that happens, the Jaguars likely would need to draft a swing tackle to step into Little’s former role.

Biggest needs: QB, DB, OL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Panthers

DP: An offensive line plagued by injuries all season should receive some reinforcements, especially with Shaq Mason and Donovan Smith a year away from free agency.

Biggest needs: QB, CB, OL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Browns

DP: The Taylor Heinicke honeymoon appears to be over. A lack of clarity at the quarterback position — when the top players at the position are healthy — in the middle of a playoff race is not ideal and reinforces the need for a definitive answer under center.

Biggest needs: QB, WR, interior OL

Week 17 opponent: vs. Colts

DP: There were positives from Daniel Jones, even in a losing effort on Saturday. He posted the highest completion rate (71.4%) of his career in a game in which he attempted 40 or more passes, and that number would have been higher if he had a more reliable receiving corps. Will the Giants extend him, tag him or let him hit the market?

Biggest needs: DB, WR, Edge

Week 17 opponent: vs. Rams

EE: Cornerback is an area the Chargers could choose to attack high in the draft, with J.C. Jackson struggling badly as a big-money free-agent signing prior to his injury, Asante Samuel Jr. turning in an up-and-down season and Michael Davis a year from free agency. But don’t forget about safety. Derwin James is now a three-time Pro Bowl selectee, but his injury issues are well-documented. Nasir Adderley is not consistently standing out and JT Woods has barely seen the field as a rookie.

PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS THROUGH THE MIAMI DOLPHINS

49ers’ record: 11-4 (.424)

49ers’ Week 17 opponent: at Raiders

Broncos’ needs: OL, WR, CB

EE: The Broncos’ collapse this season has highlighted several areas of need on the roster, and it’s gotten so bad that even Russell Wilson’s future appears murky, even with a contract that likely tethers him to them for years. Several other spots could see overhauls, with the offensive line likely taking precedence because of the sheer number of spots that could need fixing. 

NOTE: See the bottom of this article for analysis of the 49ers’ and Dolphins’ needs.

Biggest needs: DB, OT, TE

Week 17 opponent: vs. Bills

EE: What’s the long-term plan for 2022 first-rounder Daxton Hill? It’s tricky to figure out, but we’d guess safety is the plan. He’s played nickel corner out of need, such as against Tampa Bay, and that’s what he did a lot of in college. But assuming the back end is his most likely role in 2023 (with both Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell slated for free agency), the Bengals likely will need to attack the depth at cornerback. 

Biggest needs: DB, OL, WR

Week 17 opponent: at Titans

DP: Perhaps it’s a short-term cold streak but keep an eye on the Cowboys’ pass rush. Dallas ranks third in the league in sacks this season, but it has only one sack in its last three games and is the only team with a sack rate lower than 2.7% over that span (0.9%).

Biggest needs: OT, Edge, DB

Week 17 opponent: vs. Broncos

EE: One area we’ve not addressed much here is safety. It’s a sneaky-big need when you consider that both Juan Thornhill and Deon Bush are set to become free agents in March. Thornhill obviously is the more valuable of the two. The Chiefs do have Justin Reid and 2022 second-rounder Bryan Cook on the books next year, but it’s debatable if the Chiefs would be in good shape if they let Thornhill cash in elsewhere.

Biggest needs: DB, DL, WR

Week 17 opponent: at Packers

DP: One thing that could play a significant role in setting the Vikings’ draft strategy for 2023: the extensions they’re able (or unable) to strike this offseason with players due to reach free agency after next season. Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter have contracts that void in 2024. The deals for T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Hicks, Eric Kendricks and Ezra Cleveland are due to expire then, too.

Biggest needs: OL, S, WR

Week 17 opponent: at Bengals

EE: Stefon Diggs is one of the very best at what he does in the NFL, and Gabe Davis has become a mostly reliable big-play threat on the outside. The problem is with the depth. Isaiah McKenzie has not inspired a ton of confidence as his role has shrunk of late. Khalil Shakir could be a good one, flashing at times, but he’s been quiet production-wise since Week 5. Drafting a wideout in 2023 also would allow them a fallback option as Davis approaches free agency in 2024.

Week 17 opponent: vs. Saints

NOTE: See Pick No. 10 for analysis of the Eagles’ needs.

TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE MIAMI DOLPHINS

Biggest needs: OL, DL, DB

Week 17 opponent: at Raiders

DP: They’ll have limited draft capital in 2023 due to trades — the 49ers are the only team that doesn’t currently hold a pick in the first two rounds — but the secondary could become a focus. Veterans Tashaun Gipson and Jimmie Ward are among the defensive backs in a contract year.