If Thiem was at his absolute peak right now, we wouldn’t be too concerned about the amount of time he has spent on court in Belgium. However, he’s not quite there at the moment, and Korda has the type of game that could give him problems. The American is a complete player, dangerous from both sides on the baseline and nimble for a 6’5″ frame. The only true edge Thiem will have in this match is between the ears, given his edge in experience. But in a matchup in which Korda will have significant advantages in physicality, we’re not quite sure Thiem’s tennis IQ will help him prevail.
All in all, we just don’t see how this version of Thiem will find ways to really give Korda trouble. The American is a -170 favorite in this match for a reason. The oddsmakers surely know that casual bettors will see a big plus-money number next to Thiem’s name and want to back him. But Vegas is seemingly comfortable with that. And while we don’t want to lay -170 juice on Korda here, we do like him at -2.5 games. That’s not that different from a straight-up moneyline play, but you’re getting much better odds when you lay the games.
Line Call: Korda -2.5 Games (-110)