Ons Jabeur vs. Aryna Sabalenka
With a No. 2 ranking, and runner-up finishes at Wimbledon and the US Open this year, you might think Jabeur would be an old hand at the WTA Finals; it feels like she has been established in the tour’s elite for a while now. But like Pegula, the Tunisian will make her debut in the year-ender at 28. Despite her result in New York, though, she won’t come in with as much momentum as Pegula. Jabeur is just 2-1 since the Open, and her most recent match was a three-set loss to 60th-ranked Claire Liu.
Sabalenka, by contrast, has been here before. She was the No. 1 seed at this tournament last year, but didn’t make it out of the round-robin phase. This time she’s seeded seventh; like Sakkari, Sabalenka took a step back overall in 2022. While she nearly made the US Open final, she’s 1-2 since, and she lost her opener in Guadalajara.
Sabalenka and Jabeur have avoided each other in 2022 up until now. Their most recent meetings came in 2021, and Sabalenka won both times; the previous year, at Roland Garros, Jabeur came away a three-set victory. Both of these women have a definite strength that they can overuse: With Sabalenka, it’s the power ground stroke; with Jabeur, it’s the finesse shot.
Both of these women can also become borderline unstoppable once they’re comfortable at a tournament. Which makes this a tough pick, because this is a new venue, and neither of them has had much confidence-building match play of late. I’ll say Jabeur will find her groove first. Winner: Jabeur