First Quarter
Have we reached the “he’s adjusting to expectations” phase of Alcaraz’s career? From February to September, the Spaniard had a near-frictionless ride upward. He won his first 500 in Rio, his first 1000 in Miami, and his first Slam in New York. Since then, though, he’s taken a couple of surprising losses, to David Goffin in Astana and Félix Auger-Aliassime, 6-3, 6-2, in Basel.
The top seed will try to shake off the No. 1 pressure, and any doubts he might have about his indoor game, when he starts against either Aslan Karatsev or Yoshihito Nishioka. After that, he could play Matteo Berrettini—the two have had close battles in the recent past—in the round of 16, and Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals.
As for ATP Finals qualification, Rublev is hanging onto the final spot now, but he hasn’t clinched yet. Another player in this quarter, Hubert Hurkacz, is still in the running, but he needs a big week. He’ll start against Adrian Mannarino.
First-round match to watch: Holger Rune vs. Stan Wawrinka
Semifinalist: Hurkacz