Here we grade all the deals that have happened since the start of October, assessing what they might mean both short- and long-term for all involved parties.
49ers receive:
Panthers receive:
- 2023 second-round pick
- 2023 third-round pick
- 2023 fourth-round pick
- 2024 fifth-round pick
The Panthers made a big ask with McCaffrey, setting the initial price higher than what they ended up receiving. That’s how these deals tend to go. And though it’s hard to swallow the idea of a team expediting another lost season, it was their Sophie’s Choice at this point.
Carolina had to do whatever it could to amass draft assets if the team is serious about putting itself in position to solve the franchise-quarterback problem. The Week 7 win over the Buccaneers and Sunday’s wild loss to the Falcons show that the Panthers’ players have not embraced a tank-first mentality, so the team isn’t guaranteed to get a top-five draft pick.
In his Week 7 49ers debut, McCaffrey played 23 snaps and gained 62 yards on 10 touches in a 23-snap effort. That was the amuse-bouche. Sunday’s showcase performance in the 49ers’ win over the Rams was McCaffrey’s best game since at least 2019, showing just how special he can be in Kyle Shanahan’s system.
Taking on McCaffrey’s future salary and giving up four picks is nothing to scoff at, and no matter how dazzling he was against Los Angeles, you can’t ignore McCaffrey’s recent injury history. But like the rivals Rams’ “F them picks” approach, it’s worth admiring a team’s willingness to seize a rare opportunity, even when it’s riddled with potential short- and long-term pitfalls.
Ravens receive:
Bears receive:
- LB A.J. Klein
- 2023 second-round pick
- 2023 fifth-round pick
What a whirlwind the past few weeks have been for Bears fans. First they throttle the Patriots on national TV, then they proceeded to trade arguably the team’s two best defenders, with a blowout loss at Dallas sandwiched in between the deals. But this had to be in the backs of their minds, as Chicago didn’t resemble a true contender most of this season.
Following the Smith trade, the Bears currently have eight draft picks in 2023 and they’ll be flush with salary-cap space next spring. Losing Smith hurts, as he was a homegrown talent who had turned into a star, but he foreshadowed his exit in August when he and the Bears couldn’t come to an agreement on a new contract.
How Ravens GM Eric DeCosta handles Smith’s expiring contract will be fascinating. Are the Ravens willing to pay Smith at the Shaq Leonard/Fred Warner tier? Both are making more than $19 million per year, and Baltimore still has Lamar Jackson‘s deal looming. But they also can let Smith walk after this season and look to earn a 2024 compensatory pick.
So there’s surely a risk involved in this trade for Baltimore. But if Smith can upgrade this defense down the stretch, it might turn out a hit. Smith’s blitzing and coverage ability set him apart, and the Ravens have been a few defensive stops away from being 8-0. This is an upgrade over what Baltimore has at the position now.
Dolphins receive:
Broncos receive:
- RB Chase Edmonds
- 2023 first-round pick (via 49ers)
- 2024 fourth-round pick
Miami clearly is in go-for-it mode with the trade for Chubb, a signal that the team believes in its explosive offense and can make a serious run this season — and in the next few seasons.
The fact that Chubb and the Dolphins appear to be close to a contract extension boosts the grade up a bit. Miami had to pay up to get him, leaving the Fins with a somewhat bare draft-pick cupboard. But it’s a strategy the Rams turned into a title run, so who is to say it can’t work for Miami?
Chubb has enjoyed a resurgent year thus far. After entering the season with injury questions and a streak of 10 straight games without a sack, Chubb notched two sacks in the opener and currently has 5.5 on the season. He also has four additional tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and a batted pass (but zero sacks his past three games).
Denver made the prudent move here, moving Chubb amid a frustrating season, and GM George Paton has gotten back into Round 1 next spring after trading two first-rounders in the Russell Wilson deal. The value here is good, and Edmonds could offer more juice (especially as a pass catcher) in the Broncos’ offense than he’d shown in his brief time in Miami.
Bears receive:
Steelers receive:
- 2023 second-round pick
Bears GM Ryan Poles went from a seller to a buyer in a single trade-deadline cycle. After selling off Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, Chicago has brought in Claypool — a talented but enigmatic performer who played his college ball just down the road at Notre Dame.
Adding Claypool now offers the Bears a benefit over any receiver(s) they land in the offseason. It allows Justin Fields to start gaining chemistry with the big-play wideout with the hopes that he becomes Chicago’s No. 1 option over the next few years. There might be a hidden benefit, too, in that the Packers were rumored to be eyeing Claypool.
Claypool boasts the size of a mini-tight end and the vertical ability of a smaller speed receiver. Claypool and Fields could end up a really strong fit. Throw Claypool jump balls and go routes, and the Bears might have something here. That’s not how he’s been used this season, but Claypool has shown previously he can do things well with the right passing game.
But the price the Bears paid felt steep, trading away a pick that could be in the 30s overall. Claypool hasn’t matched his rookie-season brilliance statistically and arguably hasn’t gotten better since then. The Steelers’ declining QB play likely has had an effect on this, but Claypool’s performances have been inconsistent at times, especially with his hands.
Vikings receive:
- TE T.J. Hockenson
- 2023 fourth-round pick
- 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Lions receive:
- 2023 second-round pick
- 2024 third-round pick
There is a double-edged quality to this trade. There are reasons to like it for both sides and also reasons to question it for each.
For Detroit, there is sound logic behind trading a player they likely wouldn’t have signed long term. They received two Day 2 picks and freed up more than $13 million in cap space this year and next in the process. That part makes sense.
The problem is that the Lions’ roster remains a major work in progress. The young nucleus offers promise, but on the whole, Detroit is not teeming with blue-chip talents. Was Hockenson that exactly? Probably not. Yet he was among the few solid pillars on the team, and so that void must be replaced. Young, talented tight ends don’t grow on trees, after all.
Struggling through a frustrating season, TE Irv Smith Jr. is now heading to injured reserve with a high ankle sprain, so the need was there at the position. This offense now is very difficult to defend, with Hockenson giving Minnesota a middle-of-the-field dimension. He’s tough and was well-liked in Detroit, so he should fit in well in his new locker room.
But Minnesota also gave up some decent assets and, as things stand now, will be shorthanded in each of the next two drafts. Hockenson is capable of taking over a game once in a while, but he’s had only two career 100-yard receiving games (including one earlier this season vs. Seattle). And eventually Kirk Cousins‘ contract will be off the books, but until it is, the Vikings’ salary-cap situation will need some major work this coming offseason.
Eagles receive:
Bears receive:
- 2023 fourth-round pick
We mentioned that Quinn should be a player on the move a few weeks ago, and both the Bears and Eagles agreed. The Eagles are now 7-0, headlong into a push to get into the Super Bowl mix. There’s an unbelievable opportunity to take advantage of a down year in the NFC and parlay that into the franchise’s second Super Bowl Sunday appearance in six years.
Quinn has joined a team where he could be an excellent fit, and the expectations will be reasonable. Because of Philly’s depth, he doesn’t have to be a 60-snap hero. Quinn is essentially the fourth end in the rotation, and the scheme is a better fit for him than Chicago’s new system, which had him as a three-point rusher. When he had 18.5 sacks in 2021, Quinn rushed more from a two-point stance in a scheme closer to what Philly runs now.
In his first game with Philadelphia this past Sunday, Quinn logged 20 snaps and one QB hit. As a group, the Eagles harassed the Steelers with six sacks, 11 QB hits and two forced fumbles. We’d expect Quinn’s snaps to rise a tick, but not a ton. And if Philly keeps dominating up front, the trade will be well worth the cost of a fourth-rounder.
From Kyzir White and Haason Reddick to A.J. Brown and Jordan Davis to James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, GM Howie Roseman’s aggressive moves over the past eight months have mostly turned out brilliant. Perhaps Quinn is the final piece to bring it all together.
Jaguars receive:
Falcons receive:
- 2023 conditional fifth-round pick
- 2024 conditional second-round pick
This trade deadline has a little of everything! Ridley isn’t a name we’ve discussed much recently, having not played an NFL game in more than a year after stepping away from football to focus on his mental wellbeing and then getting suspended for gambling on NFL games. This is a complicated deal with a number of variables based on when Ridley returns to the field, his playing time and whether or not he signs a long-term deal with Jacksonville, so it’s truly difficult to judge it now.
It’s a clever move by the Jaguars to land a player whose price tag might have gone up in the offseason, with more possible teams bidding and less time to wait for his contributions. But doing so now also means sending assets today for a player who won’t contribute at all in 2022, so that’s the drawback. And it could end up being a fairly robust return for the Falcons in return for a player who will have gone a year and a half between games at the very least.
But the Jaguars did need WR help. Ridley might be the closest thing to a true No. 1 that they have, even with solid contributions from newcomers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Prior to an abbreviated 2021 season, Ridley was averaging nearly 70 receiving yards per game over his first three years in the league.
He’s no longer young, turning 28 in December, and has had injury issues, too. But the Jaguars are in a position to take a flier on a borderline Pro Bowl-caliber talent. It’s just that they’ve been in “next year” mode for so long now, it’s hard to get too excited — yet, anyway.
Chiefs receive:
Giants receive:
- 2023 third-round compensatory pick
- 2023 sixth-round pick
There were multiple reasons why Toney was such a quick bust with the Giants. Health needs to be at or near the top of the list. But there was a culture element to the deal, too, as Toney never quite seemed to fit in with the organization, first with Joe Judge as head coach and now with Brian Daboll’s new regime.
Maturity questions surrounded Toney when he came out in the 2021 NFL Draft, and he wasn’t a fully crafted prospect then, either, despite possessing incredibly electric skills. So along with the health worries, the Chiefs no doubt took on a pretty big risk here. New Giants GM Joe Schoen wasn’t beholden to a player he didn’t pick, and it easily can be painted as an addition-by-subtraction move by a regime that hasn’t had many early missteps.
But if you can picture Toney thriving, tell us you can’t see it happening in Kansas City — in perhaps the most imaginative and explosive offense this side of Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes‘ presence also can help Toney fit in smoothly. There might be some overlap with him and Mecole Hardman, who did have three TDs in K.C.’s last game. But there’s a need for speed, and the 23-year-old castoff can ease his way into Andy Reid’s laboratory of bizarre football and wonderful experiments.
I’d heard the Chiefs really liked Toney coming out; maybe he would have been the pick at No. 32 in the 2021 draft had the Giants not taken him a dozen picks earlier. Now they land him at the cost of roughly the 100th and 200th picks next year. If Toney can reprise the explosiveness and versatility he displayed as a senior at Florida, the cost will be well worth it.
Bills receive:
Colts receive:
- RB Zack Moss
- 2023 conditional fifth-round pick
The Bills had been connected to a few higher-profile backs in this trade cycle, but they settled on Hines, an underused player in Indianapolis who suddenly graduates from one of the worst offenses in the NFL to one of the very best.
This is a smart approach by Buffalo. It has a twofold benefit: 1) It adds a pass-catching back to complement what the Bills already have in the backfield; and 2) it allows them to move on from a player in Moss whom they’d already moved on from mentally. Hines is also under contract the next few years at a relatively modest price and could be a strong fit in Buffalo.
This allows the Bills to ease Devin Singletary‘s workload a bit and not have to force rookie James Cook into a critical third-down role with pass-protection concerns. Hines also has punt- and kick-return ability, which is a nice little bonus element of the trade. He’s never been a very effective between-the-tackles runner, but the irony is that three of his best career rushing games have come against the Bills, including a 75-yard game at Buffalo in the 2020 playoffs.
For the Colts, they move on from a player they signed to a new deal on the eve of the 2021 season, giving him $12 million guaranteed. It’s almost as if they hadn’t figured out how to employ him since that moment, as Hines has averaged fewer than six offensive touches per game in this span. His fumble rate is high, which might explain part of it. But for a team that was dying for offensive producers, Hines often took a back seat to others.
Dolphins receive:
49ers receive:
- 2023 fifth-round pick
Mike McDaniel is putting the backfield band back together again, reuniting Wilson and Raheem Mostert in Miami. It’s a strong sign that GM Chris Grier and McDaniel are in harmony on personnel moves, and it could help upgrade a run game that currently is ranked 28th in rushing yards and 27th in yards per attempt.
Wilson can help that. He’s a one-cut, slashing back who likely can step right in and assist this backfield, having run a version of McDaniel’s system the past few seasons prior to this one. But Wilson also has experienced some fumbling issues, and he’s not really a workhorse back, per se, which makes the price — with Miami already short on draft capital — a tad steep but hardly prohibitive.
Jets receive:
Jaguars receive:
- 2023 conditional sixth-round pick
The Jets weren’t going to rest on their laurels during their best start in years. This indicates they feel they have a shot at the playoffs — big injuries notwithstanding — and their long-suffering fans deserve the team’s go-for-it approach.
Robinson isn’t a one-for-one substitute for Breece Hall, the rookie star whose ACL injury ended his season and prompted the trade. But Robinson gives Gang Green a rugged inside runner with some straight-line burst and an able pass protector.
The cost was reasonable, and he could be in the 2023 picture, too. The question is how much Robinson can provide now. He was better early this season, but saw his role reduced as he got banged up and Travis Etienne‘s role expanded. Robinson played 13 snaps in his Jets debut, turning five handoffs into 17 yards in Sunday’s loss to New England.
Did the Jaguars get enough for him? They’ve already recouped the cost of the former undrafted free agent, and Robinson didn’t fit like a glove into their long-term vision. Don’t forget the Jags traded up for Snoop Conner on Day 3 of his year’s draft. This trade doesn’t make the Jaguars better now, but they can ride out this season with Etienne, Conner and JaMycal Hasty and reassess the position in the spring.
Cardinals receive:
Panthers receive:
- 2024 sixth-round pick
- 2025 seventh-round pick
There was zero risk in the Panthers ridding themselves of Anderson. He was no longer useful for a team that has little to gain this season and was likely ready to give him away at any reasonable cost.
At first blush, the cost feels pretty light. But it’s two picks, and that’s honestly one more than I expected the Panthers to receive in return; it wouldn’t have stunned me if no team even wanted to make a trade, figuring Carolina could release Anderson after his sideline tirade a few weeks ago.
But the Cardinals were desperate, with Marquise Brown out indefinitely and A.J. Green playing the part of a ghost well in advance of Halloween. A few days after the trade, Anderson played 12 snaps in Arizona’s Week 7 win over New Orleans. In Sunday’s loss at Minnesota, he played seven. Kyle Murray has targeted Anderson a total of four times, but the wideout’s still seeking his first Arizona reception.
Immediately after the trade, we might have given it a C-. But that grade is sliding down, and Anderson’s past inconsistencies make us wonder if he can do anything for the 3-5 Cardinals this season as they cling to their 2022 lives.
Browns receive:
Falcons receive:
- 2024 sixth-round pick
There’s a joke in here about which team involved should be buying and which should be selling. Struggling against the run following Anthony Walker‘s season-ending injury in Week 3, the Browns were the aggressors in this early-October deal that occurred when both Cleveland and Atlanta were sitting at 2-3. The Browns have won one game since, leaving them in third place in the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Falcons have taken two of three and suddenly find themselves pacing the downtrodden NFC South.
The Browns were desperate — hard to depict it any other way. But Jones could end up fairly valuable if Cleveland can get off the mat. He and Jacob Phillips split middle linebacker duties almost 50-50 in Jones’ first Browns game, a loss at Baltimore, but he logged a sack with more playing time in Monday night’s beatdown of Cincinnati.
You can understand why the Browns would want to string things out as best as they can until Deshaun Watson is active, especially in a season where the Steelers are struggling and the Ravens and Bengals have been alternately hot and cold. And the cost hardly was prohibitive. But the next few games will determine if the Browns can get in the race and, transitively, whether the Jones trade was a sunk cost or not.
Jones was going to count $20 million against Atlanta’s cap in 2023. He wasn’t in their plans at all. They made it known in August he could be had for a song. So getting anything of value for him, even in a year where they’re inexplicably in contention, feels like a win.
Steelers receive:
Commanders receive:
- 2025 conditional sixth-round pick
Jackson likely would have been released had this trade not happened. It’s a lower-risk move for the Steelers, landing a potential upgrade at a position of need. But they’re also taking on a bigger contract, so whiffing on this one could have a cost later.
The Commanders get an “F” for signing Jackson to that three-year, $42 million contract in March of 2021, but the trade grade is stronger because … they got something in return, even if it wasn’t much. It was clear the corner wasn’t going to contribute to this team for the remainder of the season, so that’s a win for the Commanders’ front office.
Cowboys receive:
Raiders receive:
- 2023 sixth-round pick
This wasn’t the big-name trade Cowboys fans so dearly love, but acquiring Hankins could provide an improvement in the one area this defense has struggled this season: stopping the run. Dallas ranks in the top 10 in many defensive categories, but is 25th in rush yards allowed and 21st in yards per carry.
The Cowboys have started four different defensive tackles this season, rotating them all a decent amount. In Hankins’ first game with Dallas, a 49-29 win over Chicago this past Sunday, he played 42 percent of the snaps, mostly on run downs. Trysten Hill, who had received the fewest snaps of the four incumbents, was inactive in Week 8, and then the ‘Boys waived him on Tuesday.
For Las Vegas, this is another attempt to shed some skin. The 30-year-old Hankins isn’t a pass rusher and was a rotational run stopper for the Raiders, so his value to them was fairly minimal. That was represented in the minimal return for the trade, but he had no real future in Las Vegas, so it was good the team found a buyer.
Broncos receive:
Jets receive:
- 2024 fourth-round pick
The 26-year-old Martin is a solid player with pass-rush skill, which helps fill a void following the Bradley Chubb trade and Baron Browning’s trip to IR. What we saw from Martin with the Texans prior to this season is that he’s ideally suited in a third or fourth rushing role; when he was asked to start the majority of last season, Martin’s per-snap effectiveness sunk.
The Jets earn a low grade because they got very little in return for a player to whom they gave $6 million in guaranteed money this past offseason. At the time of the signing, the deal made some sense, but he was stuck in a role playing about a quarter of the defensive snaps in New York.
Falcons receive:
Chiefs receive:
- Conditional 2023 seventh-round pick
Fenton started the first five games of this season but has missed the past two with a hamstring injury and had been surpassed on the depth chart by rookie Jaylen Watson. The Chiefs are expected to get Trent McDuffie back from injury soon, so Fenton didn’t have a clear path to playing time.
Fenton opened eyes his first two seasons as a reserve but became less effective the more he saw the field, limited by his size and lack of playmaking chops. He was flagged four times this season for penalties, including three (two of them were declined) against the Chargers in Week 2.
The biggest thing this trade achieves for Kansas City is lopping off $1.4 million in salary-cap space. For the Falcons, it’s a low-risk dart throw at a position where you can never have enough darts. Atlanta needs all the help it can find defensively, even if this appears to be a minor addition.
Bills receive:
Falcons receive:
- 2023 seventh-round pick
The Bills bring back old friend Marlowe, who signed with the Panthers as an undrafted free agent when Bills GM Brandon Beane was in Carolina. Marlowe signed with Buffalo late in Beane’s first year there (2017) and played for the Bills from 2018 to 2020 as a reserve/occasional starter on defense and key cog on special teams.
We expect him to reprise that role again in Buffalo. The Bills have to be a little worried about their secondary depth after Micah Hyde was lost for the season and Jordan Poyer got hurt (again) in Sunday night’s win over Green Bay. Marlow isn’t great in coverage but is a relatively sound, reliable player who knows the defensive system very well.
The Falcons didn’t get back much for Marlow, but we’re not sure there was another team willing to part with a draft pick for him, so that goes down as a small victory for Atlanta, too. Not a big trade, but it’s one both teams could benefit slightly from.
Follow Eric Edholm on Twitter.