Week 7 NFL game picks: Saints top Cardinals on Thursday night; Jaguars end Giants’ win streak

Two of the NFL’s most erratic yet watchable teams face off in a cornered-animal game where it’s going to get dark for the losing coach. The Saints’ secondary has gone from a strength to a weakness, but the Cardinals don’t appear to have the big-play potential to expose their safeties or softness at defensive tackle. Chris Olave has said he’ll return for the Saints this week and the New Orleans offensive line has been mauling opponents lately, especially when Taysom Hill is on the field. Andy Dalton and Hill have done their jobs and Alvin Kamara is running well again. Like a lot of these weird 2022 tilts, the better running game wins! 

• WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Browns: +228 | Ravens: -285
• SPREAD: Browns +6 | O/U: 45.5

It’s sad yet fitting the analytically driven Ravens’ numbers are so much better than their record. Despite the big leads they’ve built, very little about their season has been consistent. Rashod Bateman’s return should help, but the Baltimore defense struggles to get big stops because of a lack of edge-rushing pressure. Look for Nick Chubb to get back on track, but the Browns’ poorly coached defense will cost them again. 

• WHERE: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Buccaneers: -550 | Panthers: +400
• SPREAD: Buccaneers -11 | O/U: 40.5

The Bucs are a field goal offense, which should be plenty against a Panthers offense that ranks last in yards per game, third-down conversion rate and big plays. Carolina’s defensive injuries (Jeremy Chinn, Jaycee Horn) have sapped the team’s one strength in the secondary, so I’m curious to see if Tom Brady is willing to hold the ball a little longer this week and throw the ball deeper. He’s spinning it well still, but not hanging in the pocket like he used to. 

• WHERE: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Falcons: +215 | Bengals: -267
• SPREAD: Falcons +6 | O/U: 47.5

Look at the talent for both offenses. Then look at the Falcons ranking seventh in offensive efficiency while the Bengals are 21st. Look at how the Falcons’ undermanned offensive line is playing. That’s coaching and Atlanta has the edge offensively here. The Bengals’ bend-but-don’t-break defense has given up 383 rushing yards the last two weeks and could struggle to get off the field here. I love the Falcons to keep it close and possibly win outright. 

• WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Lions: +270 | Cowboys: -345
• SPREAD: Cowboys -7 | O/U: 49

I desperately want the Lions to be friskier coming out of a bye, but this is a brutal matchup. The Cowboys’ pass rush is diverse enough to look at Bill Belichick’s Week 5 game plan against Detroit and expand on it. The Lions had 8 players still not practicing on Wednesday after their bye. The likely return of D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown is great news, but Dak Prescott’s expected return gives the Cowboys too much juice to pick against them, even with a seven-point spread.

• WHERE: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Fla.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Giants: +140 | Jaguars: -165
• SPREAD: Jaguars -3 | O/U: 42

These two young quarterbacks have similarities. Their highs haven’t been too high, but they’ve managed to avoid consistent lows. Trevor Lawrence is asked to do more and has struggled when pressured, but the Jaguars’ running game is multi-dimensional. Picking the game, I see these teams as closer to equals than the records suggest.

• WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Colts: +122 | Titans: -145
• SPREAD: Titans -2.5 | O/U: 42.5

The Colts didn’t score a touchdown for 110 minutes of game time, then scored four in five possessions against a good Jaguars defense. Was that a turning point for the Colts’ season or a brief flash of brilliance? Even though a season series split is typical for these rivals, I still like the Titans to sweep for three reasons. Their defensive line is better, their quarterback is better and the big runs the Colts gave up last week are worrisome with Derrick Henry coming off a bye.

• WHERE: FedExField (Landover, Md.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Packers: -235 | Commanders: +192
• SPREAD: Commanders +5.5 | O/U: 41.5

Aaron Rodgers wants to simplify the offense. What’s simpler than blocking the man in front of you? Green Bay’s pass protection problems could be exposed against the best part of this Commanders team: Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen. The turn to Taylor Heinicke should give Green Bay’s vanilla defense a chance to make plays, however. It ranks 29th in football with just four takeaways. 

• WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Jets: +100 | Broncos: -120
• SPREAD: Jets +1 | O/U: 38

Can the Jets win another road game without a passing attack? That’s the likely challenge this week, with Gang Green going against the best pass defense in football, which has only improved since Justin Simmons‘ return. Russell Wilson appears back on track to play despite a hamstring injury. Theoretically, that’s a good thing. It’s hard to imagine Denver holding up against this New York pass rush, which will test an offensive line that isn’t overly talented or getting answers from its coaches. This Broncos season could include a lot of weeks wondering if it’s rock bottom yet.

• WHERE: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Texans: +250 | Raiders: -320
• SPREAD: Raiders -7 | O/U: 45.5

The Raiders’ offense was rolling in its last two games before the bye, with an offensive line showing cohesion and a power running game that makes life easier for Derek Carr. The Texans have found one of the best backs in the league in Dameon Pierce, but Davis Mills continues to miss on throws longer than 10 yards. The Raiders are so much better than their record, while the Texans deserve theirs. 

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Seahawks: +210 | Chargers: -260
• SPREAD: Seahawks +6 | O/U: 51

Seattle’s pass rush finally showed up last week, logging six sacks in the 19-9 win over Arizona by being more aggressive. The Seahawks could force Justin Herbert to let go of the ball too early as he continues to recover from his rib injury, possibly without the help of Keenan Allen for one more week as the Chargers look ahead to a Week 8 bye. It’s crazy that the ‘Hawks look better positioned to find mismatches in the secondary.

• WHERE: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Chiefs: -145 | 49ers: +122
• SPREAD: Chiefs -2.5 | O/U: 48.5

This is a dangerous game for the Chiefs, but not dangerous enough to pick them to lose two in a row. So much depends on the 49ers’ health. They’ve lost at least 10 starters at various points this season and 4 of the best from that group (Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Charvarius Ward and Mike McGlinchey) might return for this game. Can the 49ers still run on early downs? If they can and their defensive line can continue to get quick pressure against a Chiefs offensive line that has struggled to pass protect lately, an upset is in play.

• WHERE: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
• WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo
• MONEYLINE: Steelers: +260 | Dolphins: -335
• SPREAD: Steelers +7 | O/U: 45

Tua Tagovailoa is back, but will Terron Armstead return? The drop-off at left tackle for the Dolphins has been far more severe than at quarterback, with Greg Little and Brandon Shell allowing 16 pressures the last two weeks despite quick throws. I want to know about the Dolphins’ tackles before picking this game and I’m curious if Kenny Pickett will start. Miami’s blitz packages aren’t hitting like they were a year ago, but it’s still a lot for a rookie to deal with. Either way, every Steelers game except the Bills blowout came down to the final possession, so they should keep it close. 

It doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback for the Patriots. The Bears’ defense, from its run stopping to the pass rush, hasn’t been good enough to make up for an extremely limited passing game. The Patriots have quietly seen excellent secondary play, despite losing J.C. Jackson, thanks to their versatile, safety-heavy packages. They tend to cook mediocre quarterbacks and that’s where Justin Fields is in his development.