Week 15 NFL game picks: 49ers handle Seahawks on Thursday; Bills thwart Dolphins on Saturday night

My appreciation for Geno Smith has turned me into a Seahawks fan, so I had to check the numbers against my bias that his teammates are letting him down over the last month. It’s not bias! Since Week 10, Seattle’s dead last in rushing efficiency and 29th in defense, according to Football Outsiders. That’s not a lot of help. The Seahawks are especially soft stopping the run, which is not a good sign with Christian McCaffery and the 49ers’ offensive line just getting into gear. This score assumes Brock Purdy starts at quarterback for the 49ers.

• WHERE: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | NFL Network
• MONEYLINE: Colts: +175 | Vikings: -210
• SPREAD: Vikings -4 | O/U: 48.5

The Vikings being favored by just four points at home against the Colts is way more disrespectful than Minnesota being a road underdog in Detroit. While I’ve given up hope on the dull Vikings defense improving, Kirk Cousins provided optimism by authoring his best game of the season vs. the Lions. The No. 2 seed in the NFC is Minnesota’s to lose with a favorable schedule down the stretch. 

• WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | NFL Network
• MONEYLINE: Dolphins: +260 | Bills: -335
• SPREAD: Dolphins +7 | O/U: 43.5

A lot has gone wrong for the Bills despite them currently being the AFC’s top seed. Two of their most valuable defensive players (Micah Hyde and Von Miller) aren’t coming back. They still haven’t settled on a No. 2 cornerback. Their running game is erratic and their complementary receivers have disappointed enough to bring back Cole Beasley. Yet the Bills have been in so many games like this as a franchise the last three years, especially in the cold, and they understand what it means to play in massive December games. The Dolphins aren’t there yet, even if they should cover in a loss like the Jets did a week ago.

• WHERE: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Falcons: +175 | Saints: -210
• SPREAD: Falcons +4 | O/U: 43

It’s Desmond Ridder time. He enters a fine setup for a rookie quarterback with an underrated offensive line, a strong running game and a quarterback-friendly scheme. The first opponent doesn’t hurt, either. The Saints’ disappointing pass rush and so-so safety play were issues against the Falcons in Week 1, but New Orleans still eked out a thrilling comeback win. Atlanta can even the score on Sunday. And if there’s any loss that could jeopardize Dennis Allen’s job, it’s losing at home to the rival Falcons to officially be knocked out of playoff contention.

• WHERE: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Steelers: +130 | Panthers: -155
• SPREAD: Steelers +3 | O/U: 37.5

Both teams have improved since a slow start to the season, making this the hardest game to pick of the week. The Panthers have been a little better lately in the ways the Steelers want to play football: Carolina consistently runs the ball and harasses opposing quarterbacks. It’s uncertain who will start at quarterback for the Steelers, and I don’t trust either Mitchell Trubisky or Mason Rudolph. Or Sam Darnold, for that matter. Keep your children away from this game.

• WHERE: Soldier Field (Chicago)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Eagles: -430 | Bears: +328
• SPREAD: Eagles -9 | O/U: 48.5

The Bears’ offense is a great test for an Eagles run defense which has improved over the last month. Jordan Davis still doesn’t look healthy, however, and there may be no perfect defense for the way Justin Fields is playing. Luckily for the Eagles, they only have to worry about one side of the ball in this trip to Chicago. With Jalen Hurts’ enhanced timing and anticipation in the passing game, there’s nothing this offense can’t do.

• WHERE: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Chiefs: -1000 | Texans: +650
• SPREAD: Chiefs -14 | O/U: 49.5

I love that the Chiefs can finish off games with power running from Isiah Pacheco. I love Patrick Mahomes in a game against the Texans after hearing that Jalen Hurts is the MVP favorite. I love that Houston’s trying a quarterback platoon with Jeff Driskel. I love you all for reading the Chiefs-Texans score explanation in Week 15, as if this matchup is some mystery.

• WHERE: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Fla.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Cowboys: -210 | Jaguars: +175
• SPREAD: Jaguars +4 | O/U: 47.5

It hurts me so much to pick against the Jaguars this week. They could absolutely re-enter the AFC South race — even if they lose this game — and aren’t the sloppy Cowboys due for a loss? Trevor Lawrence is coming off the best game of his pro career, spinning it downfield with more conviction than even Dak Prescott. Dallas’ defense isn’t playing at its peak anymore, but even on a down day, the unit’s so much better than this Jacksonville D. The Cowboys’ ground attack is also vastly superior to the Jaguars’ running game. It’s not a fair fight for the quarterbacks.

• WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Lions: -110 | Jets: -110
• SPREAD: PICK | O/U: 44.5

Will the Lions’ transcendence travel to the Meadowlands? Their timing-based offense has looked better indoors, especially with respect to Jared Goff. Both running games are inconsistent here, and even though the Lions’ pass rush has been friskier in recent weeks, they can’t match the Jets in this area. That said, New York’s offensive line has gone from problematic to season-crushing in recent weeks. Asking Mike White to keep up in a shootout while running for his life is asking too much.

• WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
• MONEYLINE: Cardinals: +118 | Broncos: -140
• SPREAD: Broncos -3 | O/U: 36

The Broncos’ offense was modestly trending up even before exploding for 28 points against the Chiefs. Denver’s defense may not be as dominant as it was early in the season, but the pass rush, possibly buttressed by a Randy Gregory return, should cook this Arizona offensive line. This pick is made under the optimistic premise that Russell Wilson clears concussion protocol and returns to action. As poor as Russ’ debut season in Denver has been, he’s a better option than Brett Rypien.

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Titans: +135 | Chargers: -160
• SPREAD: Chargers -3 | O/U: 47.5

The Chargers are going to make us believe in them again, aren’t they? I would love to know the statuses of Bolts S Derwin James and RT Trey Pipkins, as well as Titans DL Denico Autry, for this matchup, but a healthy Mike Williams is enough to make this Los Angeles passing game whole. The Titans aren’t getting the same consistent pass rush and their cornerbacks aren’t big enough to hang with Williams. Tennessee will be able to run, and Brandon Staley’s game plans only seem to work every other week, but L.A. is the better pick in a shootout. If the Chargers win this game, they’ll be in control of a playoff spot, considering their upcoming schedule.

• WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
• MONEYLINE: Bengals: -195 | Buccaneers: +162
• SPREAD: Bengals -3.5 | O/U: 44

If the Buccaneers can’t stop the run — and they probably can’t without Vita Vea — then who are they, exactly? Tampa Bay could get back some pieces in the secondary this week (Antoine Winfield Jr., Mike Edwards) after losing cornerback Jamel Dean. And on it goes for this cursed Bucs season. Tampa’s offensive line isn’t the same without Tristan Wirfs, so Tom Brady is rushing throws more than ever. There are so many players on both teams up in the air at publishing (including the Bengals’ Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Trey Hendrickson) that it’s hard to analyze this game beyond recognizing that Cincinnati has many more avenues to the winner’s circle.

• WHERE: FedExField (Landover, Md.)
• WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo
• MONEYLINE: Giants: +180 | Commanders: -220
• SPREAD: Commanders -4.5 | O/U: 40.5

After watching the Commanders-Giants stalemate two Sundays ago, I wrote a note to pick Washington in the rematch. In short: The G-Men are less talented than every team they play, and the schematic advantage their excellent coaches provides should be less of a factor after seeing them once. A tie in Week 13 felt fortunate. With New York’s offensive line getting worse by the week, Washington’s D-line should dominate this game. Only a Taylor Heinicke turnover or three (always possible!) can save the Giants now.

Baker Mayfield‘s first Rams start was fun, but he still struggles to find the shorter, chain-moving routes that keep an offense on the field. Green Bay’s defense is soft enough — and Los Angeles’ defense is finding enough answers (Michael Hoecht! Bobby Wagner!) — to keep this game close into the fourth quarter. Once a prize of the Monday night schedule, this is now a chance to see if the Packers can keep their miniscule playoff hopes alive.