2022 NFL season, Week 16: What We Learned from Saturday’s games

Around The NFL breaks down what you need to know from all of Saturday’s action in Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season. Catch up on each game’s biggest takeaways using the links below:

EARLY GAMES

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Kevin Patra’s takeaways:

1. Bills’ ground game spearheads runaway victory in Windy City. Josh Allen couldn’t generate much through the air in Chicago’s freezing, blustery conditions. The rushing attack, however, was plenty hot enough to skate for a blowout victory. Buffalo rushed for 254 yards on 31 attempts with three ground scores. Trailing 10-6 at the half, Devin Singletary and James Cook scorched the Bears defense, running through gaping holes for chunk gains. Singletary (12/106/1) got the second half started with a 33-yard TD scamper. Cook (11/99/1) matched that with a 27-yard gallop on the next drive to blow the game open. With Allen struggling in the wind, throwing two ghastly interceptions, the Bills showed they could lean on a rushing attack. Heading into the postseason, knowing the run game can create explosive plays and churn out first downs provides reassurance if the bad weather continues to follow the Bills around.
2. Buffalo defense stymies Justin Fields, Bears offense. Fields couldn’t provide many jolts to best a Bills defense keying on the dual-threat QB. Fields rushed just seven times for 11 yards, never finding space with Matt Milano and the rest of the Bills D lurking. Playing in poor conditions and lacking weapons, the Bears didn’t trust Fields much to throw after the opening drive. The QB did splash a gorgeous 44-yarder to Velus Jones to close the third quarter, but outside of that play, the Bears offense was back to the inconsistent malaise we saw early in the season. A hoard of run-run-ask-Fields-to-create-magic drives wasn’t going to get it done against the Bills. Buffalo stacked the box, spied Fields and dared the Bears to move the ball through the air. It worked, holding Chicago to 209 total yards, including 80 rushing.
3. Bills clinch AFC East title. For the third consecutive season, Sean McDermott’s club took the division crown. Buffalo had gone 24 straight seasons (1996-2019) without a division title prior to 2020. The victory is Buffalo’s sixth straight to improve to 11-3 and keeps the Bills in the No. 1 spot ahead of Kansas City heading into the final two weeks. Buffalo faces the AFC North-leading Bengals next week and the Patriots in Week 18.

Next Gen stat of the game: Justin Fields went 3-of-4 for 70 yards and a TD on passes of 10-plus air yards (12-of-18, 49 yards on passes of fewer than 10 air yards).

NFL Research: Josh Allen (174) passed Dan Marino (171) for the most offensive touchdowns in a player’s first five seasons in the Super Bowl era.

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Eric Edholm’s takeaways:

1. Ravens do just enough offensively to win again. That’s now three wins in four games following Saturday’s grind-it-out victory over Atlanta, and in each one of them the Ravens have failed to pass the 17-point mark. The Falcons outgained the Ravens, had more first downs and ran 17 more plays but settled for field goals and had two possessions end on downs. What made it a successful day for the Ravens was taking control in the second quarter and converting the only TD drive of the game for either team. After forcing a turnover on defense, the Ravens took over and ran the ball 11 straight times before Tyler Huntley hit Demarcus Robinson for the 6-yard TD, which held up on replay. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins fueled that drive and combined for 158 yards on 23 carries, with Huntley chipping in 31 yards on his first eight runs (before three kneeldowns). Dobbins’ recent resurgence is a good sign for the Ravens. It wasn’t a pretty performance, but it’s what the Ravens know they need to do with Lamar Jackson still on the mend. Baltimore still controls its fate for the division and is now in the playoffs with New England losing.
2. Desmond Ridder shows a few flashes in incomplete performance. Ridder’s second NFL start was much cleaner than his first, when his pocket presence was lacking and his nerves seemed to get the best of him. On Saturday, though, Ridder settled in after a quiet start and found some nice rhythm for a few stretches. The biggest development was Ridder finding Drake London consistently, including a really impressive throw to London for 20 yards down to the Baltimore 4-yard line in the fourth quarter. The Falcons couldn’t convert, getting stopped on fourth down. But it is notable that Ridder and London now have hooked up 14 times in two games (on 20 targets) for 166 yards after the rookie had only 16 catches (on 26 targets) for 132 yards the previous six games with Marcus Mariota at QB. If you’re a Ridder fan, Saturday was a nice incremental step in his development with 2023 in mind. Atlanta likely will bring in QB competition in the offseason, but Ridder’s play down the stretch will be fun to watch.
3. Falcons blow a few golden chances to win this game. The end-of-half execution was an indictment on head coach Arthur Smith as the Falcons tried to cut into a 14-0 deficit. Starting the play with 43 seconds until halftime, Ridder hit Avery Williams on a 7-yard pass to the Baltimore 1-yard line. Smith, with one timeout in his pocket, let the clock run. Ridder snapped the first-and-goal play with 25 seconds remaining; it was a slow-developing rollout, pressure forced Ridder to get rid of the ball, and intentional grounding was called. Only then did Smith use a timeout, and the Falcons had to settle for a field goal (that barely made it through). Those were potentially lost points. The Falcons then had the ball in TD range in the fourth quarter, facing a 17-6 deficit, but stalled with some questionable play calls and were stopped on fourth down. If the Falcons want to be a run-heavy team that wins close games, they likely will need to clean up these kinds of miscues. They’ve been happening quite often this season and are a big part of the team’s 5-10 record at this point.

Next Gen stat of the game: Ravens running back Gus Edwards had plus-52 rushing yards over expected, which was the third-most in a single game in his career.

NFL Research: Demarcus Robinson scored the only touchdown of the game. He was the first Ravens wide receiver to catch a TD since Devin Duvernay in Week 3. The Ravens had not thrown a TD pass in their three previous games.

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Michael Baca’s takeaways:

1. Panthers’ dominant rushing attack keeps improbable season alive. Carolina gashed the Lions defense for 320 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, outright controlling a fast-paced game in frigid temperatures and setting the franchise’s all-time mark for rushing yards in the process. Chuba Hubbard set the tone for such a day with a 30-yard scamper on the game’s opening play, prompting an eye-opening showcase of big run plays initiated by the tremendous blocking from the Panthers’ offensive line. D’Onta Foreman got into the mix as well with a couple of big gains and would soon eclipse the 100-yard rushing mark along with Hubbard to help propel the Panthers into halftime with a commanding 24-7 lead. While Detroit was better prepared to stop the run in the second half, Carolina kept churning away on the ground to eat up clock with a lead and allowed its passing game to open up. Needing a first down to maintain possession late in the fourth quarter, Foreman ran up the middle for a 28-yard gain to surpass the team’s previous record of 299 total rushing yards in a game. Foreman (165 yards; TD) and Hubbard (125 yards) set career-high marks in the effort, and with the Panthers notching wins in three of their past four games, interim coach Steve Wilks has his team eyeing an implausible playoff berth amid a tumultuous season.
2. Lions couldn’t climb out of early hole. Detroit set the table for a shootout in Charlotte once answering the Panthers’ opening scoring drive with a touchdown, but the Lions’ lone turnover on the day ruined such a scenario. Jared Goff‘s lost fumble on the snap not only ended a long Lions drive that reached the red zone, but concluded the quarterback’s impressive streak of zero turnovers over the past six games (five wins). Allowing a TD on the ensuing Panthers drive, Detroit never really recovered and put itself in a precarious spot as its leaky run defense affected the rhythm of its streaky offense. The Lions went three-and-out on their two remaining drives of the first half and offered the same result for their two possessions coming out of halftime. Goff eventually got the offense going late in the third quarter, totaling 355 passing yards and finding three TDs to Shane Zylstra, but this was far from an impressive game his final stat line may suggest. The Lions’ 45 total rushing yards on the day were another glaring factor of Detroit’s disappointing day, and Dan Campbell’s squad will go forward needing help from other teams in order to have a chance of getting into the playoffs.
3. Sam Darnold making his case in Carolina. Benefiting from a rushing attack that couldn’t be stopped, the Panthers quarterback exploited the Lions defense through the air in the second half to ensure a stress-free win. It was a demonstration of what could be in Carolina when the offense is firing on all cylinders. Darnold’s 47-yard connection to D.J. Moore on the Panthers’ opening second-half possession exemplified the type of splash plays that could be had in Carolina with a capable quarterback. The play set up Darnold’s back-breaking TD throw to Moore to extend its first-half dominance, and while the Panthers QB managed his way toward an easy win, he was able to make all the throws asked of him. The 25-year-old completed 15 of 22 passes for 250 yards and a TD while adding 19 rushing yards and another score in the first half. Darnold found Moore five times for 83 yards and continues to prove a healthy rapport with Carolina’s top receiving threat. It’s performances like these that make one wonder if Darnold — the Panthers’ third starting QB of the season — has been the man all along for Carolina in 2022. With two road games remaining against NFC South foes (at Buccaneers, at Saints), Darnold certainly has an opportunity to not only make that case but become Carolina’s saving grace.

Next Gen stat of the game: The Carolina Panthers’ +130 rushing yards over expected in the first half are the most by any team since RYOE was introduced in 2018.

NFL Research: The Panthers offense set new franchise records in total yards (570) and rushing yards (320) vs. the Lions behind 165 rushing yards from D’Onta Foreman and 125 rush yards from Chuba Hubbard, which is the first time in team history that two players each had at least 125 rushing yards in the same game.

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Eric Edholm’s takeaways:

1. Of course it came down to the end, and these teams could see each other again. In what might have been a playoff preview, the Vikings outlasted the Giants in a one-score game — something both teams have been quite immersed in this season. According to NFL Research, the Vikings are now 11-0 in games decided by one possession in 2022 — the most one-possession victories in a season all-time. Strangely, the game didn’t appear to have a dramatic effect on the playoff tiers. The Vikings kept their remote hopes alive for the top playoff seed, and despite the loss, the Giants were helped by other teams’ losses elsewhere. It’s entirely possible these teams are back at U.S. Bank Stadium in a few weeks for a wild-card round game if things stay the course in the NFC. The Giants can look at losing the turnover margin (2-0) and the penalty battle (7-2) as two big reasons why they came up a bit short. Dropped passes didn’t help. Neither did picking off Kirk Cousins twice only to see both — one by penalty, one by review — be overturned. But they hung tough and gave themselves a chance in the end. If these teams indeed do square off again, a close game that comes down to a few plays feels almost inevitable.
2. T.J. Hockenson comes up huge in the win. The Hockenson trade has been a crucial element to the Vikings’ stretch run, as he’s caught three-plus passes in every game with Minnesota and easily integrated himself into the offensive system. Saturday was his best game as a Viking yet — and statistically one of the best of his career. Hockenson matched his career high for catches (10) with 14 minutes left in the game and finished with 13 grabs for 109 yards and two touchdowns, only the second multi-TD game of his career. The Vikings never trailed after Hockenson’s 15-yard TD early in the fourth quarter, and it was a fantastic catch in traffic against tight man coverage. He also took a few shots in this game and kept getting up and churning out first downs. He and Justin Jefferson both helped bail out Cousins in what was an uneven day for the quarterback.
3. Daniel Jones isn’t to blame for the Giants’ loss. Jones’ interception early in the fourth quarter was a poor throw and a tough blow after the Giants had moved into scoring range in a four-point game. But it was his first INT since Week 11 and was about the only thing to mar his record on this day. Sure, this is a Vikings defense that has made a habit of bringing out the best in opposing quarterbacks. But Jones threw with confidence in completing 30 of 42 passes for 334 yards and one TD with Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James and Darius Slayton as his top targets. Jones also showed some real toughness to keep fighting in a game where he took three sacks and 11 hits, and he ran four times for 34 yards. After some recent games where the passing game appeared limited, this was a positive development, especially if the Giants get to face this defense again. The holes in the secondary were there. The chances were, too. The Giants can win the possible rematch if Jones plays this well again and they take advantage of their chances better.

Next Gen stat of the game: Giants head coach Brian Daboll lost 5.6% win probability on his decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-5 from the Minnesota 37-yard line in the fourth quarter.

NFL Research: Justin Jefferson now holds the Vikings’ single-season receiving-yards record that was previously held by Randy Moss (1,632 yards in 2003).

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Nick Shook’s takeaways:

1. Patrick Mahomes, painter of happy little TDs. We know Mahomes is a magician with the football in his hands, but much of his performance on Sunday wasn’t an act — it was art. Mahomes’ ability to extend the play produced a number of completions that didn’t seem possible just seconds earlier, and one play stands out in particular: A 27-yard completion to Travis Kelce on third-and-5 in which Mahomes put the perfect amount of touch on his pass, dropping one over the shoulder of Teez Tabor and right into Kelce’s arms for a key pickup that led to the Chiefs’ second score of the day. Statistically, Mahomes didn’t light up the scoreboard — he finished 16-of-28 for 224 yards and two touchdowns — but he made a number of key throws to keep the Chiefs offense moving, building an early 17-0 lead that felt rather insurmountable. His touchdown run was the icing on top of the Chiefs’ sugar cookies.
2. Seahawks waste a good day from Kenneth Walker. It had been more than a month since Walker broke 100 yards on the ground entering Saturday. Instead of continuing to struggle, Walker took advantage of Kansas City’s defense, which began Week 16 tied for 24th against the run, rushing 26 times for 107 yards. He provided most of Seattle’s offensive firepower for the majority of the game, but the Seahawks couldn’t get out of their own way, converting just 2 of 14 third-down attempts and turning it over once. Though the Seahawks weren’t buried on the scoreboard, one look at the win probability graph tells the story of this game. Seattle never had more than a 23 percent chance of victory against Kansas City. Walker’s effort proved to be irrelevant as a result in a game that wasn’t even as close as its 14-point difference. After losing three straight and four of their last five, it’s fair to wonder whether the Seahawks have run out of gas. It sure seems like it.
3. Kansas City’s defense makes a late-season surge. The Chiefs have not been very good defensively this season, ranking 18th entering Week 16 and 28th in big plays allowed. Saturday was a different story for Kansas City, which constantly harassed Geno Smith with a bevy of different pass rushers. Chris Jones registered a career-high eight QB pressures to go along with a sack on 36 rushes (22.2 pressure percentage), per Next Gen Stats, and he was far from alone. George Karlaftis made a pair of important plays early, batting down a Smith pass on fourth-and-3 in the first quarter to end a Seattle drive. He followed that up with a third-down sack deep in Seattle territory, forcing another Seahawks punt. Four Chiefs finished with two or more pressures: Jones, Karlaftis (two), Carlos Dunlap (three) and Frank Clark (two). That wasn’t all for the Chiefs defense, which tempered Walker’s solid day by watching seven of its defenders register at least one run stuff. If Kansas City can play like this every week, they’re in a fantastic position to return to the Super Bowl. It’s about consistency from here on out.

NFL Research: Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdown passes of fewer than 10 yards Saturday, increasing his total of such touchdown passes to 24 in 2022. He trails only Peyton Manning (25 in 2013) and Aaron Rodgers (29 in 2020) for the most such touchdown passes in a season in NFL history. Both Manning and Rodgers won MVP in those seasons.

Next Gen Stat of the game: Patrick Mahomes completed 13 of 19 passes of fewer than 10 air yards for 125 yards and two touchdowns Saturday.

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Kevin Patra’s takeaways:

1. Joe Burrow starts hot, Bengals hang on late. Burrow completed his first 11 passes as the Bengals offense did whatever it wanted in the first half. Cincy outgained the Pats 303 yards to 70 at halftime as the Bengals built a 22-0 lead. Burrow was firing darts, dropping dimes and churning out first downs (15 passing through two quarters). Burrow completed 28 passes, the most by any QB in a half this season. If not for a red zone interception by Burrow, the half would have been even more lopsided. In the second half, the Patriots defense turned the tables, holding Cincy to 118 yards. Burrow threw a pick-six on a miscommunication with Ja’Marr Chase. Later, the star wideout fumbled, giving the Patriots a chance to take the lead late. Toss in a missed field goal, and the aplomb play of the first half from the Bengals dissipated. Luckily, the defense came up with a huge stop late after the offense scuttled. All that matters for Zac Taylor’s club: It survived on the road for a win.
2. Patriots choke away another chance at a comeback victory. After a pathetic first half from New England’s offense, Mac Jones finally found life by taking shots to Kendrick Bourne. After throwing for 34 yards in a scoreless first half, Jones netted 206 and two touchdowns — including one on a heave that was batted and fell to Jakobi Meyers — in the second half to get the Patriots back into the game. Following a second missed PAT from Nick Folk that kept the game at four points, Matt Judon forced a Chase fumble to give the Pats a chance to take the lead. With the Bengals out of timeouts, the Patriots had an opportunity to control the game and score to take the lead with little to no time left. However, for the second straight week, New England bumbled their way to the end. Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled the ball on first-and-goal from the 5-yard-line with 59 seconds left. Following last week’s mind-numbing pitch play, Stevenson’s fumble was another choke job with a chance to make a playoff push.
3. Bengals remain atop AFC North; Patriots’ playoff hopes on life support. Cincy’s victory moved them to 11-4, keeping their one-game lead over the Ravens (10-5) intact with two to play. Having clinched a playoff spot, the Bengals will try to win back-to-back division titles in the final two weeks. Cincy faces the No. 1 seeded Bills in Week 17 and the Ravens in Week 18. Meanwhile, the last two weeks have been brutal for the Pats’ playoff chances. Instead of pulling out second-half wins, Bill Belichick’s club now needs help to keep its postseason hopes alive with AFC East matchups against the Dolphins and Bills left.

Next Gen stat of the game: Bengals receiver Trenton Irwin had a 25.6 percent completion probability on an 18-yard TD reception (the most improbable catch in his career).

NFL Research: Marcus Jones has a receiving TD, punt return TD and INT return TD as a rookie. The only other player in the Super Bowl era to score a 40-plus-yard TD each of those ways in his entire career is Deion Sanders.

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Nick Shook’s takeaways:

1. Saints defense stands tall in terrible conditions. Saturday stood as the third-coldest game played in Cleveland in franchise history, with the seven-degree temperature cold enough to freeze fans’ beverages before they could finish them in the stands. Logically, this would make things quite difficult for a road team that’s used to playing in a climate-controlled dome. Not these Saints, though, who gave up 10 first-half points, then denied Cleveland in the game’s final two quarters. An interception off a deflected pass set up New Orleans’ go-ahead score, and the unit’s ability to stifle Cleveland’s offense produced two turnovers on downs, preserving the one-score advantage. Nick Chubb finished with a per-carry average under four yards, and Deshaun Watson posted the worst passer rating (47.1) of his career. Some of this is certainly due to the conditions, but it would’ve been easier for the Saints defense to give up after falling behind by 10. Instead, Dennis Allen’s bunch proved to be tougher with a physical brand of football that sent the Browns to a loss. So much for home-field advantage.
2. Kevin Stefanski is entering dangerous territory. The Browns’ coach and play-caller has made a number of questionable decisions on key downs throughout this season, and Saturday was no different. After taking a 10-0 lead, Cleveland’s offense went into a shell on both the sideline and the field. Watson’s cast of pass catchers repeatedly dropped well-placed passes — especially on the Browns’ desperate final drive — and Stefanski didn’t do his quarterback any favors, calling two passes on third-and-2 and fourth-and-2 in a game played amid wind gusts of over 20 mph. Stefanski’s rushing attack struggled to get going, falling victim to a predictable approach that New Orleans had no problem defending. The timing of his pass plays didn’t make much sense, either, consistently putting the Browns behind schedule and forcing Watson to attempt low-percentage passes. The defense, unsurprisingly, fell apart in the second half, allowing the Saints to score 17 unanswered points. And when the Browns needed a touchdown most, they failed, sending them toward an irrelevant two-game stretch to close another disappointing campaign. Stefanski’s seat isn’t hot, but even with the Browns’ late quarterback change considered, it should be warm. There’s just no excuse for the way he called Saturday’s game, which should have been a winnable one for the Browns. With very little left to play for in the final two weeks of 2022, Stefanski will need to do his best to ensure Cleveland doesn’t end the campaign in ugly fashion.
3. Alvin Kamara deserves a medal for this performance. Consider this: The Saints won a game in frigid conditions by throwing for fewer than 92 yards. As a team, they gained 244 yards. Those numbers typically don’t reflect a winning team, but because of Kamara, the Saints left Cleveland in triumphant fashion. Following a Daniel Sorensen interception, the Saints moved right down the short field, and Kamara punched it in from four yards out by redirecting behind the line of scrimmage and running through would-be tacklers across the goal line. Kamara also caught a key third-down pass in the fourth quarter, extending a drive that would eventually stall, but not before moving down the field enough to pin the Browns deep in their own territory. Of those 244 yards, Kamara was responsible for 110 and one of New Orleans’ two touchdowns. New Orleans doesn’t win this game without Kamara, who tied Marques Colston for the most total touchdowns in Saints history (72) Saturday.

Next Gen stat of the game: Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill combined to finish with +40 rushing yards over expected in Saturday’s win.

NFL Research: Saturday was the third time in franchise history in which the Saints won a game in which they finished with fewer than 100 passing yards and zero passing touchdowns.