NFL QB Index, Week 16: Trevor Lawrence skyrockets into top 10; Tom Brady tumbles

2022 stats: 14 games | 67.3 pct | 3,472 pass yds | 8.2 ypa | 22 pass TD | 5 INT | 747 rush yds | 13 rush TD | 9 fumbles

Reports surfaced Monday that Hurts is dealing with a sprained throwing shoulder suffered in the third quarter of Sunday’s win over the Bears. The injury isn’t considered a long-term threat, but his status is in question for Saturday’s showdown with Dallas. Gardner Minshew sits on deck. 

On Sunday, Hurts and the Eagles found another way to win, overcoming uncharacteristic miscues and a sleepy start against Chicago. Hurts tossed two picks over his first 12 attempts — after throwing just three all season — but made up for it with 61 yards and three scores on the ground, including a 22-yard speed race through Chicago’s defense. His slow start through the air gave way to a storm of pinpoint throws and deep-ball artistry aimed at twin-destroyers DeVonta Smith (5/126) and A.J. Brown. His 68-yard hookup with Brown — who posted a career-best 9/181 line — came amazingly after the shoulder sprain. Unstoppable in short-yardage situations, an open-field headache and the game’s most-improved thrower, Hurts on Sunday tied Randall Cunningham’s 1990 franchise-record 35 offensive touchdowns in a season. He won’t stop there. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 63.7 pct | 3,857 pass yds | 7.6 ypa | 30 pass TD | 11 INT | 705 rush yds | 6 rush TD | 12 fumbles

Allen was beastly in Saturday night’s classic against the Dolphins. With the Bills trailing 29-21 in the fourth, Allen put the game on his shoulders with a 44-yard blast through the defense before hitting Dawson Knox for the score and tying the affair by launching his 6-foot-5 frame into the fray to convert the two-pointer. Along the way, Allen taught a clinic on extending the play with his outside-the-pocket touchdown dart to James Cook as time expired in the first half. He lost one of two fumbles on an extraordinary strip-sack by Jaelan Phillips. The turnover feels excusable when your starter personally accounts for 381 yards of offense and four touchdowns in a must-win battle doused in snowflakes. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 68.2 pct | 3,885 pass yds | 7.6 ypa | 31 pass TD | 10 INT | 242 rush yds | 5 rush TD | 5 fumbles

Burrow and the Bengals spent two quarters out of sorts against the Bucs, falling into a 17-3 hole at halftime and looking little like the juggernaut of recent weeks. It was promising to see Cincy come storming back to earn a double-digit win, turning a waterfall of Bucs turnovers in Tampa territory into three straight touchdown drives. Burrow was deadly in the red zone, spraying scoring strikes to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. His 31 touchdown passes trail only Mahomes. His ceiling is a mystery Nancy Drew can’t solve. Burrow always finds the light. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 67.5 pct | 4,019 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 21 pass TD | 9 INT | 145 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 6 fumbles

Herbert was hushed by a brilliant Titans defense for much of Sunday. Kept at bay until he engineered a one-minute drill to perfection — highlighted by an on-the-move, 35-yard bullet to Mike Williams — to set up the game-winning field goal. The box score lists two interceptions, but one of them was nothing short of a magic act from outerspace as Tennessee’s leaping Roger McCreary snagged the ball as it soared out of bounds and tossed it to a toe-tapping Joshua Kalu in the end zone. The numbers aren’t always there in this offense, but Herbert does something every game that inspires wonderment. 

2022 stats: 12 games | 64.8 pct | 3,238 pass yds | 8.6 ypa | 24 pass TD | 5 INT | 70 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

Tua doubters gathered in hoards after back-to-back duds that saw Miami’s quarterback unplugged by defensive Ph.D.s DeMeco Ryans and Brandon Staley. If Buffalo had dropped a similar hammer, Tagovailoa would slink around as the boy who cried wolf. Instead, Tua answered the call, helping the Fins score 16 unanswered points and carve out a 29-21 lead in the final frame. He was helped tremendously by Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed on the ground, but Tagovailoa showed next-level accuracy on his touchdown toss to Tyreek Hill and eased concerns by hooking up for a 67-yard catch-and-run score to Jaylen Waddle. With 9:02 on the clock and the game tied at 29, Tua hit a diving Hill for 13 yards and a leaping Cedrick Wilson for 21, but the drive fizzled from there to set up Allen and the Bills for glory. Maybe next time. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 66 pct | 3,520 pass yds | 7 ypa | 24 pass TD | 7 INT | 239 rush yds | 4 rush TD | 9 fumbles 

Rescued just in time from Urban Meyer’s bad parenting, Lawrence is evolving into a starry centerpiece under the watch of Doug Pederson. In Sunday’s thriller over the Cowboys, Lawrence piled up 318 yards and four touchdowns, while showing the ability to overcome his own mistakes. The game looked cooked after Lawrence fumbled in the final minutes with Jacksonville trailing 34-31. After throwing a bad pick early, Lawrence appeared doomed to suffer the brand of miscues that marked his early-season struggles. Instead, he marched the offense for a game-tying field goal as regulation expired. Jacksonville’s first overtime possession was a dud, but the defense bailed them out with a season-altering pick-six. It takes a village. 

Consider the overall body of work: With 1,680 passing yards and a 14:1 touchdown-to-pick ratio over his past six games, Lawrence should be viewed as a legitimate Comeback Player of the Year nominee after what this team went through a season ago.  

2022 stats: 9 games | 68 pct | 2,103 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 17 pass TD | 11 INT | 114 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 2 fumbles

The game-ending pick-six bounced off Noah Brown and into the arms of Rayshawn Jenkins. Prescott’s earlier interception hauled in by Jenkins was a wayward toss that set up a quick Jaguars score. Another example of Prescott pressing — wanting to make something happen — but he otherwise threw the ball well inside a game plan that dialed up 41 runs. The way this works, though, only one of his passes will be remembered. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 71.4 pct | 3,671 pass yds | 7.8 ypa | 26 pass TD | 8 INT | 281 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 7 fumbles

Geno’s Thursday night misadventure saw him running for dear life from a gang of bloodthirsty Niners defenders who dropped him for three sacks and made life a horror show in the pocket. The physical bout was characterized by San Francisco cover man Charvarius Ward waging all-out war on DK Metcalf to take away the big plays downfield we’ve come to expect from Smith. A flock of penalties wiped out chunk gains and Geno was lucky his awful pick-six was erased by a Niners infraction. Few signal-callers would have survived San Francisco’s onslaught, but we are witnessing a downtick from Geno’s early-season heroics: 

2022 stats: 13 games | 62 pct | 2,048 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 15 pass TD | 10 INT | 1,000 rush yds | 8 rush TD | 15 fumbles

Fields played under constant duress against an Eagles front that dropped him six times and spun endless chaos. Chicago’s leading man programmed madness of his own, though, with Sunday’s most gorgeous gallop, darting out of a would-be sack for what appeared to be a 48-yard dance to paydirt. The officials turned it into a 39-yard trot after ruling he stepped out of bounds, but the mounting evidence was unmistakable: Fields is set to alter the Bears — and the NFL — for years to come. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 65.3 pct | 3,818 pass yds | 7.0 ypa | 24 pass TD | 11 INT | 58 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 5 fumbles

Cousins played his part digging the Vikings into a vicious sinkhole against the Colts, but he channeled something from within to put up 460 yards and four touchdowns in a game immediately rendered a classic. Authoring the greatest comeback in NFL history guarantees you also authored a few early blunders — his pick-six had the Twitter pitchforks out — but the feat also requires a quarterback willing to burn the past and focus on the treasure. Cousins will never be Aaron Rodgers in his prime (although he did just become the first Vikings player to post back-to-back 400-yard games), but none of that matters: This improbable, illogical, wholly loony Vikings campaign doesn’t exist without him.   

2022 stats: 14 games | 64.9 pct | 3,093 pass yds | 6.8 ypa | 23 pass TD | 10 INT | 64 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 7 fumbles

Rodgers kept Green Bay’s meek playoff hopes alive with a solid day at the office in Monday night’s flattening of Los Angeles. The beginning was problematic with an overthrown deep shot to Allen Lazard pulled down by Rams backstop Taylor Rapp. Lazard didn’t go where Aa-Rod wanted him to (neither did Rapp) but the Packers ground out a win as the reigning MVP spread 22 completions to eight separate targets and leaned on a big night from Aaron Jones. 

Asked postgame if he thought his 6-8 squad could pull off the old run-the-table act, Rodgers issued an affirmative: “I do. Now we’ve got to play three better football teams [the Dolphins, Vikings and Lions], but I do (believe), definitely.”

2022 stats: 14 games | 66 pct | 3,897 pass yds | 6.3 ypa | 20 pass TD | 7 INT | -6 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 5 fumbles

The Bucs remain a tough watch. Especially when the troubles extend to Brady, who threw a pair of picks and lost two fumbles as Tampa careened off another mountainside. Brady was hit hard throughout the second half — especially on his second interception — wiping away an opening two quarters that marked the team’s finest offensive showing in eons. 

Some reading this were born after Brady was drafted. Others have watched his entire career. For all involved, it’s unusual to see the G.O.A.T. attached to a floundering attack still searching for itself on the brink of Christmas. Brady is rarely the reason for it, but it’s becoming tough to separate the quarterback from this stinking stew. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 65 pct | 3,604 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 23 pass TD | 7 INT | 51 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 5 fumbles

Goff has morphed from a warm glass of milk into an Eight Mile cult hero. His 252-yard, one-touchdown show against a rowdy Jets defense was a workmanlike outing absent of any major mistakes. Hitting an open Jameson Williams deep would have been icing on the cake, but who’s complaining about Goff’s 1,563 yards, nine touchdowns and zero picks since Week 10? The playoff-hopeful Lions, 5-1 during that span, are rolling with a quarterback nobody wanted, a stopgap taking snaps until some precious rookie arrives. As Detroit has become more than anyone expected, though, so has Goff. Stopgap THIS. 

2022 stats: 12 games | 65.2 pct | 2,536 pass yds | 7.8 ypa | 13 pass TD | 6 INT | 98 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 3 fumbles

Lost in Justin Herbert driving the Chargers to a game-winning field goal: Tannehill’s ice-cold, tough-as-nails game-tying march that preceded it. Trailing 14-7 late in the fourth, the Titans quarterback hit Chig Okonkwo for 28 yards and Austin Hooper for 17 to set up first-and-goal from the L.A. 4-yard line. Three plays later, Tannehill barreled in for the score. The 44 ticks gifted to Herbert spelled doom, but Tannehill — playing with a heavily taped ankle — proves himself every week to be a roaming alpha unafraid of the odds. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 61.2 pct | 3,348 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 23 pass TD | 11 INT | 88 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

It’s only slightly concerning that Chandler Jones boasted more yards after the catch than any other Vegas pass-catcher in Sunday’s bizarro win over the Patriots.

Still, Carr helped set the stage for that improbable ending. The second-half drive chart read like a morgue report — interception and five straight punts — before Carr helmed a nine-play, 81-yard, two-minute march capped by Keelan Cole‘s controversial 30-yard toe-tapper in the end zone. Was he in or out? “We looked at every available angle and it was not clear and obvious that the foot was on the white,” NFL senior vice president of officiating Walt Anderson said after the game. “There was no shot that we could see — we even enhanced and blew up the views that we had.” 

The upheld call triggered a kickoff to New England that set the Patriots up at their own 25 with 32 ticks on the clock. Six plays later, Jones was off to the races. 

2022 stats: 14 games | 66 pct | 2,694 pass yds | 6.6 ypa | 12 pass TD | 4 INT | 583 rush yds | 5 rush TD | 5 fumbles

The Giants took a chance on Sunday night that paid off. Gripping to a 7-3 lead and facing fourth-and-9 from the Washington 35, coach Brian Daboll put the ball in his quarterback’s hands. It paid off as Jones dialed up an 11-yard completion to Richie James. A pivotal decision inside an 18-play, 97-yard touchdown drive that took nearly nine minutes off the clock and furnished New York with a 14-3 lead at the break. These are the moments that could convince Daboll to keep Jones around as the lead guy in 2023. Danny Dimes creates his share of suspicion, too, but there’s plenty to work with.

2022 stats: 11 games | 66.8 pct | 2,403 pass yds | 7.6 ypa | 17 pass TD | 7 INT | 55 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 3 fumbles

The Saints are a mixed bag. That includes Dalton, but he continues to jive with whoever New Orleans wheels out at receiver. He found Juwan Johnson (4/67/2) for chunky real estate against Atlanta and shows a history of producing with the electric Rashid Shaheed. The latter, though, did his best work Sunday with Taysom Hill, who unfurled a 68-yard laser beam to the rookie. The Dalton-Hill Road Show plays for three more weeks at a theater near you. 

2022 stats: 8 games | 61.4 pct | 1,693 pass yds | 7.0 ypa | 10 pass TD | 5 INT | 100 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 6 fumbles

Heinicke’s hot-and-cold act was on display in Sunday night’s bitter loss to the Giants. Minutes after firing a pretty 61-yard deep shot to Jahan Dotson, Heinicke fumbled away the ball in the red zone. That came midway through the fourth quarter, long after Washington’s quarterback was separated from the football by Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York’s emerging rookie pass rusher who recovered his own handiwork and barreled in for a 1-yard score. Still, it wasn’t Heinicke’s decision to punt from New York’s 34- and 40-yard line early in the affair. And it wasn’t Heinicke who failed to call Darnay Holmes for defensive pass interference on the quarterback’s final prayer dart to Curtis Samuel. 

2022 stats: 3 games | 60.9 pct | 568 pass yds | 6.2 ypa | 2 pass TD | 2 INT | 76 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Watson made progress against the Ravens, but remains hot-and-cold inside a Browns scheme figuring out how to make it all fit. His 17-yard scramble in the final period recalled his ability to churn yards on the ground, but Watson’s 4.3-yard average depth of target against Baltimore didn’t pass the eye test. While still mathematically breathing, Cleveland’s top priority is using the rest of the season to get their ultra-expensive arm to resemble his price tag. 

2022 stats: 7 games | 65 pct | 1,252 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 4 pass TD | 5 INT | 38 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 0 fumbles

This might be our final Mitch Blurb of ’22 after Mike Tomlin announced Tuesday rookie Kenny Pickett will start Saturday night against the Raiders.

I enjoyed watching Pittsburgh grind out a 21-play, 91-yard touchdown drive that burned up nearly 12 minutes of the third quarter and carved out a 21-7 lead off Trubisky’s 1-yard scoring bash. Pickett’s backup did what he was told, pegging 17-of-22 passes — favoring Diontae Johnson and hitting George Pickens on a heater down the sideline — and staying out of trouble beyond a near pick to Shaq Thompson. Pittsburgh was an admirable 12 of 16 on third down in its sixth win of the season. An offense once left for dead has displayed growth on the ground, better line play under coach Pat Meyer and just enough from its collection of quarterbacks. 

2022 stats: 12 games | 67 pct | 3,057 pass yds | 6.6 ypa | 14 pass TD | 13 INT | 70 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 15 fumbles

This holiday season, say a prayer for Matt Ryan. 

2022 stats: 11 games | 65.8 pct | 2,310 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 7 pass TD | 8 INT | 97 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 5 fumbles

New England told on itself with an 82-yard drive that mined to the Las Vegas 1-yard line before uncorking three straight incomplete passes, calling two timeouts along the way and resorting to a field goal after Jonnu Smith was hit with a false-start flag on fourth-and-goal. This against a Raiders defense ranked 32nd inside its own 10-yard line. Stuck in an offense struggling to get play calls in on time, the ever-seething Jones managed just 56 passing yards before the break. And just when it seemed Mac’s wayward second season couldn’t grow more awkward/frustrating/beguiling — it did all those things with one punishing Chandler Jones stiff-arm into the night. 

2022 stats: 12 games | 61.9 pct | 2,440 pass yds | 6.5 ypa | 13 pass TD | 12 INT | 61 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 5 fumbles

The Mills/Jeff Driskel Project continues to delight — if that’s the kind of thing you’re into. The Texans yanked the Chiefs into overtime by turning a pair of Kansas City fumbles into touchdowns and watching Harrison Butker miss a would-be game-winning field goal. Mills threw touchdown passes to Jordan Akins and Teagan Quitoriano and danced into the end zone from 17 yards out. He also lost the game with a chaotic overtime fumble that landed in the lap of Kansas City. The Garfunkel to Mills’ Simon, Driskel totaled eight yards rushing and eight yards passing in one of the NFL’s loonier supporting roles. 

2022 stats: 9 games | 58.4 pct | 1,654 pass yds | 6.3 ypa | 8 pass TD | 7 INT | 63 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 7 fumbles

With last week’s hero act in the rearview, Mayfield’s second appearance with the Rams was more typical fare. Baker’s arm looked lively on his touchdown strike to Tyler Higbee. Not so much on a ball nearly taken to the house by Quay Walker, the promising Green Bay rookie who also dialed up a strip-sack. Monday night’s 12-for-21 outing was the Mayfield we’ve come to know, but he’s making a case to serve as Matthew Stafford‘s understudy in 2023. It helps that Sean McVay’s scheme shares DNA with the system Baker ran in Cleveland under Kevin Stefanski. Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic notes that’s especially true in the language around offensive line responsibilities and protection calls. Per Rodrigue, “one offensive assistant compared this benefit of stockpiled information to a kid skipping from first to sixth grade.”

2022 stats: 3 games | 59.1 pct | 509 pass yds | 7.7 ypa | 3 pass TD | 0 INT | 35 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 1 fumble

You don’t want to be Sam Darnold when the Panthers manage just 21 yards rushing off 16 carries — the fifth-worst day on the ground in club history. Stuck behind a line that gave up four sacks and lost endless battles to Pittsburgh, Darnold was stuck doing the Lord’s work against T.J. Watt and friends. He looked sharp on Carolina’s first touchdown march, though, hitting Terrace Marshall twice for 53 yards and D.J. Moore for one of Sunday’s nastier touchdown strikes. Come January, when Darnold starts a playoff game for the division-winning 7-10 Panthers, you know we’re just living in a sim designed to toy with our fragile emotions.

2022 stats: 4 games | 70.3 pct | 413 pass yds | 5.6 ypa | 0 pass TD | 2 INT | 87 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 2 fumbles

Tough sledding for Huntley. Baltimore’s drive chart against the Browns says it all about an offense short-handed on weapons and sitting in hot water when Justin Tucker operates as anything other than utter perfection: 

• Downs
• Punt
• Field goal
• Missed field goal
• Interception
• Fumble
• Blocked FG/Downs
• Downs
• Downs

2022 stats: 3 games | 61.3 pct | 438 pass yds | 5.5 ypa | 2 pass TD | 3 INT | 7 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 4 fumbles

Rypien hit 21-of-26 throws and helped the Broncos put up 24 points, their second-highest output all year. Obvious query — WHY CAN’T RUSSELL WILSON DO THAT? — aside, Denver’s backup survived through multiple face-to-face encounters with an Arizona front that downed him seven times. Aided by a Latavius Murray-led ground game that churned out 168 yards off 34 carries, Rypien made a smattering of throws and bit off more than he could chew on a downfield shot stolen by Budda Baker at the goal line. Rypien later threw a touchdown pass to Eric Tomlinson to carve out a 24-9 lead, a wider advantage than Denver has enjoyed all year behind Wilson. 

2022 stats: 1 game | 50 pct | 97 pass yds | 3.7 ypa | 0 pass TD | 0 INT | 38 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Arthur Smith long pushed back on the concept of starting Ridder. Now we know why. Door No. 2 produced a flavorless feast on Sunday, with the rookie squeezing out just 97 yards inside a run-heavy attack (231 yards off 39 carries) aiming to hide the quarterback. Ridder accounted for 38 of those ground yards — almost half coming on a mysterious decision to run out of bounds as time expired — and connected with rookie Drake London for a brilliant one-handed grab. The duo linked up again with the game on the line, but London fumbled the ball away. 

2022 stats: 4 games | 51.7 pct | 166 pass yds | 5.7 ypa | 0 pass TD | 3 INT | 34 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Bathed in folly, this year’s Cardinals are onto their third quarterback after Colt McCoy was sidelined during Sunday’s loss to the Broncos with a concussion. In his place strode in McSorley, throwing a pair of picks — a disaster ball to Justin Simmons that set up Denver’s final score and the game-sealer to Pat Surtain — and looking out of sorts for Kliff Kingsbury’s identity-free offense. The 2019 sixth-rounder will deal with Tampa next if McCoy isn’t cleared.