Ons Jabeur vs. Jessica Pegula
Halloween was a trick rather than a treat for these two WTA Finals rookies. Jabeur and Pegula were somewhat surprising—to me, anyway—losers in their opening matches on Monday. Each was the higher seed, each had had a better season than her opponent, and each put herself in a position to succeed multiple times, but couldn’t close the deal. Pegula was edged in two close tiebreakers to Maria Sakkari, a woman she had beaten handily two weeks earlier. Jabeur won the first set over Aryna Sabalenka and had plenty of chances in the next two; she was up 5-3 in the second-set tiebreaker, and 4-2 in the third set. But a gritty Sabalenka wasn’t to be denied.
Which one will bounce back from a tough defeat more quickly? The winner will still be in the thick of the semifinal chase, while the loser will likely be going home early. Jabeur and Pegula played twice in 2021 and twice again in 2022. Jabeur won three of those four meetings, though Pegula did reel off a 6-0 middle set when they faced off for the title in Madrid in May.
Stylistically, they offer a clear contrast. The Tunisian is a risk-taker with a wide palette; she’s as comfortable driving flat ground strokes to the corners as she is whipping under and around the ball to create a heavily-spinning finesse shot. The American plays the percentages, relies on her depth and consistency, and has a nose for the dependable play, even if it isn’t the spectacular one.
These two should be settled in at this event now, and determined not to go down 0-2. All other things begin equal, I think Jabeur can get to places that Pegula can’t. Winner: Jabeur